Elections in Baja California. The PAN will win, but in the end the PRI will rule

Ricardo V. Santes-Álvarez

Fact: Sunday July 7, 2013. Elections in California for Governor, Mayors, and local deputies.

Main focus: State government

Background

Baja California is an entity where the PAN has ruled for the past 24 years.

It was in 1989 when, in a supposed negative agreement (concertacesión) the then president, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, declined in giving battle to keep the PRI in government.

The then PRI candidate, Margarita Ortega Villa, was sacrificed in favour of the PAN candidate, Ernesto Ruffo Appel, who thus became the first opposition governor of Mexico at the end of the twentieth century.

The then leader of the PRI, Luis Donaldo Colosio, had to appear publicly accepting the painful defeat. It is said that since that time the PRI from Baja California felt hurt by Luis Donaldo … it is said.

In the following years many things happened, the federal government experienced the 12-year ruling of PAN Presidents:

1. There was a Coca-Cola jester, who transitioned from a blunder to the next in so cheerful and brash manner.

2. There was a mental midget, who boasted in campaign being proud of having «clean hands», but ended with hands full of blood.

Logical consequence: In 2012, the PRI regained the presidency.

 In Baja California, the PRI had troubles regarding the tricolour candidate for governor. The natural one, Jorge Hank Rhon, who belongs to the powerful group of the State of Mexico but has lived many years in the state and has local popularity in wide circles, was left aside by Fernando Castro Trenti.

In the PAN the situation was less problematic, and Francisco Vega de la Madrid was chosen to spearhead a coalition of political parties whose raison d’être would be incomprehensible, if personal benefit were put aside.

 During the campaign, it was clear that mud war prevailed. The voter has learned intimacies as well as mistakes or alleged crimes committed by the contestants, both blue and tricolour, during his previous tenure in public office. Will the dirty campaign define the position of the voter? We will see it on Sunday.

 Additionally, it is rumoured that the PRI national chiefs have abandoned Castro Trenti to his own destiny. It has being commented there will be another “concertacesión” as that staged by Salinas decades ago. All for the sake of pushing through supreme interests of Enrique Peña administration, as a couple of reforms outlined in the Pact for Mexico, which PAN and PRD have threatened to retire if government does not respect some commitments. In this context, it seems that a great nod to the blue and yellow opposition would be to retire again from the governorship of Baja California.

Hypothesis

In my opinion, the issue is not going to look like as it happened 24 years ago. Clearly, Castro Trenti is not part of the Peña Nieto group and therefore it is “expendable”. Nevertheless, it is also clear that 24 years means already too much tolerance. The PRI of Salinas gave the PAN the state of Baja California … is the time for the same PRI to recover it. I think Vega de la Madrid is going to win the election of 7 July, but in the end, the governorship will be for the PRI. But not Castro Trenti… Maybe Mr. Jorge Hank.

Well, it is just a hypothesis, so while it is time to get out and vote, I will serve another cup of coffee.

 Twitter: @RicSantes